A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
