It was eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether his displays were a sign or a cause for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
His opener came from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
A reversion to average may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
